This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed by March 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET that the X account @kanyewest (https://x.com/kanyewest), believed to be owned by Kanye West, was sold or transferred to another individual. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be a public statement from Kanye West confirming the sale or transfer of the account, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Started: 23.02.2025
Will end: 14.03.2025
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancelation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by March 14, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Started: 03.03.2025
Will end: 14.03.2025
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTCUSDT 14 Mar '25 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) has a final “Close” price of 89,000.01 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTCUSDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTCUSDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Started: 07.03.2025
Will end: 14.03.2025
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETHUSDT 14 Mar '25 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) has a final “Close” price of 2,200.01 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETHUSDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETHUSDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Started: 07.03.2025
Will end: 14.03.2025
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for XRPUSDT 14 Mar '25 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) has a final “Close” price of 2.45001 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRPUSDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRPUSDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Started: 07.03.2025
Will end: 14.03.2025
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for DOGEUSDT 14 Mar '25 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) has a final “Close” price of 0.20001 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the DOGEUSDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/DOGE_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance DOGEUSDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Started: 07.03.2025
Will end: 14.03.2025
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for SOLUSDT 14 Mar '25 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) has a final “Close” price of 145.01 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOLUSDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance SOLUSDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Started: 07.03.2025
Will end: 14.03.2025
This market will resolve according to the final “Close” price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTCUSDT 14 Mar '25 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTCUSDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTCUSDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Started: 07.03.2025
Will end: 14.03.2025
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between March 7, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and March 14, 2025, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Started: 07.03.2025
Will end: 14.03.2025
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on March 14, 2025.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Started: 07.03.2025
Will end: 14.03.2025
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fear and Greed Index says "Extreme Fear" when it is checked on March 14, 2025, 12:00 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market will be CNN's Fear & Greed Index, found here: https://edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
In the event that CNN stops updating its Fear & Greed Index, this market will resolve to the last available update on the stated resolution time. In the event that CNN's Fear & Greed Index becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the bracket that held the lowest numerical range (e.g. "Extreme Fear).
Started: 10.03.2025
Will end: 14.03.2025
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official representative of the Ukrainian government publicly claims responsibility for a cyberattack on X/Twitter by March 14, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be statements made by official government sources (e.g., verified accounts, press releases, announcements from government officials speaking in an official capacity, etc.).
Started: 10.03.2025
Will end: 14.03.2025
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any executive order between March 10, and March 14, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, that aims to regulate, restrict, promote, or otherwise directly address the use, trading, or legal status of cryptocurrencies or blockchain technology including crypto accounting requirements for banks and 'de-banking'. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will use the federal register as the resolution source (https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders).
Started: 11.03.2025
Will end: 14.03.2025
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rodrigo Duterte is released from custody by March 14, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Duterte is released from custody by the resolution date but remains under house arrest, the market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
If Duterte is released on bond, this will count as being released from custody and the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Duterte to another location of custody will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from relevant government bodies, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Started: 11.03.2025
Will end: 14.03.2025
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump speaks with Mark Carney between March 10 and March 14, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Conversations via phone or video call will count toward a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Trump, Carney, their official representatives, and the governments of the US and Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Started: 11.03.2025
Will end: 14.03.2025
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 14, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Started: 11.03.2025
Will end: 14.03.2025
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration (including any federal court) publicly releases any files pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein between March 11, 4:00 PM and March 14 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any release of documents, even if previously publicly available, will count towards the resolution of this market.
Announcements of declassifications or releases that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Started: 11.03.2025
Will end: 14.03.2025
This market will resolve "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order on March 14, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Executive actions will not qualify toward this market’s resolution.
This market will immediately resolve "Yes" if the text of an executive order for the given day is published on the White House page for presidential actions (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/) or the White House press pool. Mere announcements will not qualify.
If no executive order is published by 12:00 PM ET the day after the listed date of this market, this market will resolve to “No”
In the case of ambiguity this market will use the federal register as the resolution source (https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders).
Started: 12.03.2025
Will end: 14.03.2025
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on March 14, 2025.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market’s timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Started: 12.03.2025
Will end: 14.03.2025
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on March 14, 2025.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market’s timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Started: 12.03.2025
Will end: 14.03.2025
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTCUSDT 13 Mar '25 00:00 in the ET timezone (midnight) is lower than the final "Close" price for the 14 Mar '25 00:00 ET candle.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTCUSDT 13 Mar '25 00:00 in the ET timezone (midnight) is higher than the final "Close" price for the 14 Mar '25 00:00 ET candle.
If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTCUSDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTCUSDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Started: 12.03.2025
Will end: 14.03.2025
On March 11, the House passed H.R. 1968: Full-Year Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2025, in an effort to keep the government funded. You can read more about that here: https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5189141-house-republicans-pass-government-funding-bill/
This market will resolve to"Yes" if 1 or more Democratic Senators vote for the passage of the this bill by March 14, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no vote takes place by March 14, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of the initial roll call vote for the passage of the H.R. 1968. Any subsequent votes will not be considered.
Senators without a formal party affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they caucus with.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Started: 13.03.2025
Will end: 14.03.2025
Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver a speech at the Department of Justice on March 14, 2025. (https://www.axios.com/2025/03/13/trump-justice-department-speech).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.
Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by March 14, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Any statements made by Trump during the appearance, including any Q&A, will qualify.
The resolution source will be video of the speech.
Started: 14.03.2025
Will end: 14.03.2025